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USD/JPY Chart 19/02/2016

USD/JPY tumbled on Thursday, and fell below the support (now turned into resistance) of 113.40 (R1). In my opinion, this confirms that the recovery from 111.00 (S2) was just a 38.2% correction. I would now expect the bears to continue pushing the price lower and perhaps target our next support of 111.65 (S1). Looking at our short-term oscillators, I see that the RSI fell below its 50 line and moved lower to test the 30 barrier, while the MACD has topped fractionally below its zero line and crossed below its trigger line. These indicators detect negative momentum and corroborate my view that the pair is possible to continue its slide. As for the bigger picture, I still believe that the close below 116.00 (R3) has turned the longer-term outlook negative. This is another reason I would see the 11th – 16th of February recovery as a corrective phase for now.

YEN 19

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