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Crude Oil Today Technical Report 29/04/2016

WTI continued moving higher on Thursday to hit resistance slightly below the 46.50 (R1) zone. Following the break above the key hurdle of 44.60 (S2), WTI gained upside momentum and added to its gains. A break above the 46.50 (R1) area could carry larger bullish implications and perhaps challenge our next resistance at 47.70 (R2). Looking at our momentums though, I see signs that the next move is most likely going to be lower before the bulls take control again. The RSI hit twice resistance at its 70 line and declined a bit, while the MACD, shows signs of topping and could fall below its trigger line. As for the bigger picture, the break above 44.60 (S2) has confirmed a forthcoming higher high on the daily chart, something that keeps the medium-term trend to the upside, in my view.

OIL 29OIL 29

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USD/JPY Today Technical Report 29/04/2016

USD/JPY continued collapsing on Thursday following the BoJ policy rate decision, breaking three support lines in a row. During the early European morning Friday, the pair hovers just above the 107.15 (S1) support line, and a break below it is likely to push the pair towards our next support at 106.30 (S2), taken from the lows of the 21st of October 2014. Our short-term indicators support this notion. The RSI hit resistance at its 30 line and turned down again, while the MACD, already negative, shows signs of topping and could fall further. As for the broader trend, the break below the 107.80 (R1) support-turned-into-resistance zone printed a lower low on the daily chart and signaled the continuation of the longer-term downtrend, in my view.

YEN 29

GBP/USD Today Technical 29/04/2016

GBP/USD advanced on Thursday and broke above the downside resistance line taken from the peak of the 24th of August. Therefore, I maintain my view that the short-term outlook is positive. I would expect the pair to continue trading higher and aim for a test of the 1.4680 (R1) line marked by the highs of 4th of February. A break of that level is needed to trigger larger bullish advances and perhaps challenge the 1.4785 (R2) zone. Looking at our near-term indicators, both detect accelerating upside speed and support the case for further advances. Zooming out to the daily chart, I see that Cable broke above the 80-day exponential moving average, which provided a reliable resistance to the price action on the 17th and 31st of March, as well as towards the end of last week. The pair also broke above the aforementioned downside resistance line, which has shifted the medium-term trend to the upside as well.

POUND 29

EUR/USD Today Technical 29/04/2016

EUR/USD edged higher on Thursday by exploiting the broader USD weakness, for another attempt to break above the 1.1390 (R1) resistance zone. There were few attempts to break that level and rally but none of them found the necessary strength to push EUR/USD above that territory. I would expect a break of that hurdle to carry larger bullish implications and perhaps challenge our next resistance of 1.1435 (R2) and bring us closer to the key psychological area of 1.1500 (R3). Our short-term momentum indicators support this notion. The RSI lies just below its 70 line pointing up, while the MACD, emerged above its zero line and is pointing up as well. As for the broader trend, EUR/USD is still trading within a wide range between the 1.0800 key obstacle and the psychological area of 1.1500 (R3). As a result, I would consider the longer-term path to be sideways. I would need a break of 1.1500 (R3) to trust further advances.

EURO 29

Daily Market Our View 29/04/2016

EUR/USD

Long position above 1.129. Target 1.14. Conversely, break below 1.129, to open 1.1255.

Comments: The pair remains supported. Further advance favored.

GBP/USD

Long position above 1.452. Target 1.467. Conversely, break below 1.452, to open 1.4465.

Comments: The pair remains supported. Further advance favored.

USD/JPY

Short position below 108.75. Target 106.4. Conversely, break above 108.75, to open 109.9.

Comments: The pair remains under pressure. Further weakness favored.

AUD/USD

Short position below 0.769. Target 0.753. Conversely, break above 0.769, to open 0.772.

Comments: The pair is expected to resume descend after correction.

GOLD

Long position above 1264. Target 1287. Conversely, break below 1264, to open 1260.

Comments: The pair remains supported. Further advance favored.

CRUDE OIL

Long position above 44.45. Target 46.35. Conversely, break below 44.45, to open 43.75.

Comments: The pair is expected to resume advance after correction.

DOW JONES

Short position below 17960. Target 17690. Conversely, break above 17960, to open 18010.

Comments: The pair remains under pressure. Further weakness favored.

NZD/USD Today Technical Report 28/04/2016

NZD/USD soared after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the key policy rate unchanged. The move was halted near the prior support line taken from the lows of the 28th of March and the 0.6950 (R1) resistance line. A break of that crossroad area is needed to carry larger bullish extensions and push the rate towards the psychological zone of 0.7000 (R2). Our short-term momentums support this notion. The RSI moved above its 50 line and is pointing up, while the MACD, although in its negative territory crossed above its trigger line and could emerge above zero anytime soon. Zooming out to the daily chart, I see that the rate has being printing higher peaks and higher troughs since the end of January. Also, the pair has broken above the upper bound of the sideways range it had been trading from the beginnings of October. These keep the medium-term outlook cautiously positive, in my view.

28 NZD

Crude Oil Today Technical Report 28/04/2016

WTI moved higher on Wednesday and broke above the resistance-turned-into-support area of 44.60 (S1). There were few attempts to break that level and rally but none of them found the necessary strength to push WTI above that territory, up until the disappointing Fed decision statement. The break above the 44.60 (S1) area is likely to carry larger bullish implications and could challenge perhaps our next resistance at 45.75 (R1). Our short term indicators emerged above their respective downslope resistance lines and support the case that WTI could continue a bit higher. As for the bigger picture, the break above 43.00 (S2) has confirmed a forthcoming higher high on the daily chart, something that has shifted the medium-term trend to the upside, in my view.

28 OIL

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