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USD/JPY Today Technical Report 06/04/2016

USD/JPY continued its tumble yesterday, falling below the key support (now turned into resistance) zone of 111.00 (R1). The decline was stopped by the psychological figure of 110.00 (S1) and then the rate rebounded somewhat. In my view, the break below 111.00 (R1) has shifted the near-term bias back to the downside, but I would like to see a decisive dip below 110.00 (S1) before I get confident on larger bearish extensions. Such a move is possible to initially prompt extensions towards the 108.35 (S2) obstacle, defined by the inside swing high of the 24th of October 2014. For now though, I believe that the current corrective bounce may continue for a while, perhaps to challenge the 111.00 (R1) line as a resistance this time. This is also supported by our short-term oscillators. The RSI bottomed within its oversold territory and now looks ready to move above 30, while the MACD, although negative, shows signs of bottoming and could move above its trigger line soon. As for the bigger picture, I still believe that the close below 116.00 has turned the broader trend to the downside. What is more, the dip below 111.00 (R1) signaled the downside exit of the sideways range the rate had been oscillating since the beginning of February, between that obstacle and the psychological area of 115.00. As a result, I would consider the longer-term downtrend trend to be back in force.

YEN 6

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