Trade n Trend

Home » 2016 » May

Monthly Archives: May 2016

Daily Market Our View 12/05/2016

EUR/USD

Long position above 1.1385. Target 1.145. Conversely, break below 1.1385, to open 1.1355.

Comments: The pair remains supported. Further advance favored.

GBP/USD

Short position below 1.454. Target 1.437. Conversely, break above 1.454, to open 1.457.

Comments: The pair is expected to resume descend after correction.

USD/JPY

Long position above 108.25. Target 109.45. Conversely, break below 108.25, to open 107.5.

Comments: The pair is expected to resume advance after correction.

AUD/USD

Short position below 0.7415. Target 0.73. Conversely, break above 0.7415, to open 0.7445.

Comments: The pair is expected to resume descend after correction.

GOLD

Long position above 1264. Target 1283. Conversely, break below 1264, to open 1259.

Comments: The pair faces corrective pullback before fresh rally.

CRUDE OIL

Long position above 44.95. Target 46.75. Conversely, break below 44.95, to open 43.95.

Comments: The pair remains supported. Further advance favored.

DOW JONES

Short position below 17850. Target 17600. Conversely, break above 17850, to open 17910.

Comments: The pair remains under pressure. Further weakness favored.

Advertisements

New Zealand dollar rises in relief rally, Aussie friendless

Wed, May 11 2016, 06:01 GMT Sources:  Reuters

The New Zealand dollar got a leg up on Wednesday after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand wrong-footed some investors by taking no new steps to curb a hot housing market, while the Australian dollar struggled with sliding iron ore prices.

The New Zealand dollar was squeezed higher to US$0.6810, having gained a full cent from a six-week low touched on Tuesday. Its next big resistance level is US$0.6891, the 23.6 per cent retracement of the January-April move.

In its six-monthly financial stability report, the RBNZ said it was increasingly concerned about the country’s overheated housing market, but it stopped short of taking measures to tighten lending, forcing kiwi bears to the exit.

“While the report maintained a dovish outlook, there were no new policy measures included in the statement,” said Stephen Innes, a senior trader at FX firm OANDA Australia and Asia Pacific.

“Markets had been looking for any changes to macro-prudential policy to counter house price inflation across the country.”

The kiwi rallied across the board, with the euro down to NZ$1.6746, from a three-month peak of NZ$1.6929 touched on Tuesday.

It was a clear outperformer against its Aussie neighbor which dropped nearly 1 per cent to NZ$1.0806.

There was not much love anywhere for the Australian dollar. It dipped to US$0.7351, from US$0.7365 early, pulling closer to a two-month trough of 73 US cents touched on Tuesday.

Another slide in prices of iron ore, Australia’s top export earner and heavy yen buying weighed on sentiment for the commodity-currency.

The Aussie has tumbled around 5 cents in three weeks, largely after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates for the first time in a year to combat the risk of deflation.

“Economic growth is going to be slower, inflation will stay low, and the reality is that the Australian central bank will be dragged into moderate further easing over the next six to 12 months,” said Rob Mead, head of portfolio management at Pimco Australia. “That’s good for bond prices.”

Markets are fully priced for another easing to a record low of 1.5 per cent late this year and imply a small chance of a follow-up move by December.

New Zealand government bonds eased, sending yields as much as 5 basis points higher on the long-end.

Australian government bond futures ran into profit taking after recent gains. The three-year bond contract lost 2 ticks to 98.420, having touched a record peak on Tuesday. The 10-year contract eased half a tick to 97.7000, while the 20-year contract fell 2.5 ticks to 97.0600.

The two-year cash bond yield edged up to 1.6 per cent, from an all-time low of 1.5 per cent touched last week. It was as high as 2.1 per cent late April.

Sources:  Reuters

Oil declines as US stockpile gains counter Nigeria disruption

Wed, May 11 2016, 05:56 GMT – Bloomberg

Oil declined as rising US crude stockpiles countered supply disruptions in Nigeria, Africa’s second-biggest producer.

Futures slid as much as 0.7 per cent in New York after advancing 2.8 per cent Tuesday.

US inventories increased by 3.45 million barrels last week, the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute was said to report. Government data Wednesday is forecast to show stockpiles expanded from the highest level since 1929.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Chevron Corp are evacuating workers from the Niger Delta because of deteriorating security, a union official said.

Oil has rebounded after slumping earlier this year to the lowest level since 2003 on signs the global gut is easing as US output declines. Producers in Canada including Shell and ConocoPhillips are beginning the process of restarting operations after the easing of wildfires that curbed supply.

“The impact of supply disruptions at the moment is a lot less given the very large stockpiles and supply surplus, but if we were to see a prolonged outage then it would help to redress the significant increase we saw in Iranian and Iraqi production last month,” Ric Spooner, a chief analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney, said by phone.

“The market has rallied quite a long way amid the US production cuts.”

West Texas Intermediate for June delivery fell as much as 32 US cents to US$44.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at US$44.45 at 12:59 pm Hong Kong time.

The contract gained US$1.22 to close at US$44.66 on Tuesday, paring its 2.7 per cent loss the previous session. Total volume traded was about 34 per cent below the 100-day average. Prices have gained about 70 per cent from a low in February.

Brent for July settlement lost as much as 29 US cents, or 0.6 per cent, to US$45.23 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract climbed US$1.89 to US$45.52 on Tuesday. The global benchmark crude was at a premium of 22 US cents to WTI for July.

Crude supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI and the biggest US oil-storage hub, increased by 1.46 million barrels last week, the API said Tuesday, according to a person familiar with the figures.

Nationwide stockpiles probably expanded by 750,000 barrels, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey before an Energy Information Administration report.

 

Sources:  Bloomberg

Daily Market Our View 11/05/2016

EUR/USD

Short position below 1.142. Target 1.1305. Conversely, break above 1.142, to open 1.148.

Comments: The pair is expected to resume descend after correction.

GBP/USD

Short position below 1.454. Target 1.437. Conversely, break above 1.454, to open 1.457.

Comments: The pair is expected to resume descend after correction.

USD/JPY

Long position above 107.85. Target 109.45. Conversely, break below 107.85, to open 107.5.

Comments: The pair faces corrective pullback before fresh rally.

AUD/USD

Short position below 0.7415. Target 0.73. Conversely, break above 0.7415, to open 0.7445.

Comments: The pair remains under pressure. Further weakness favored.

GOLD

Short position below 1274. Target 1254. Conversely, break above 1274, to open 1277.

Comments: The pair is expected to resume descend after correction.

CRUDE OIL

Short position below 45. Target 43. Conversely, break above 45, to open 45.3.

Comments: The pair remains under pressure. Further weakness favored.

DOW JONES

Long position above 17719. Target 17910. Conversely, break below 17719, to open 17610.

Comments: The pair is expected to resume advance after correction.

Oil trades near 2-week low as Canada wildfire threat lessens

Tue, May 10 2016, 06:00 GMT Bloomberg

Crude traded near a two-week closing low as wildfires in Canada moved away from the main oil-sands facilities, reducing the likelihood of a long period of reduced production levels.

Futures fell as much as 0.6 per cent in New York. The wildfires led to cuts equivalent to about 1 million barrels a day, or 40 per cent of the region’s production, based on IHS Energy estimates. A shift in winds away from the facilities and cooler weather limited damage to producers.

Once fires in Alberta are under control, the majority of oil sands mining projects could be back to normal production levels in about a week, Morgan Stanley said.

Oil has rebounded after slumping to the lowest level since 2003 earlier this year amid signs the global oversupply will ease as US output declines. While American production has dropped, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has boosted supply to more than 33 million barrels a day, underpinned by gains from Iran and Iraq.

West Texas Intermediate for June delivery fell as much as 25 US cents to US$43.19 a barrel onthe New York Mercantile Exchange and was at US$43.24 at 7:28 am Tokyo time.

The contract dropped US$1.22 to close at US$43.44 on Monday, the lowest in two weeks. Total volume traded was about 65 per cent below the 100-day average.

Brent for July settlement slipped US$1.74 to end the session at US$43.63 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange on Monday. WTI for July closed at a 40-US-cent premium to Brent.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, replaced its oil minister Ali al-Naimi over the weekend with the chairman of state energy company Saudi Arabian Oil Co Khalid Al-Falih.

Speaking in January at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Mr Al- Falih indicated that Saudi Arabia plans to act vigorously to defend its market share and exports as the market re-balances.

Sources:  Bloomberg

Daily Market Our View 10/05/2016

EUR/USD

Short position below 1.148. Target 1.137. Conversely, break above 1.148, to open 1.153.

Comments: The pair hits support and bounces.

GBP/USD

Short position below 1.454. Target 1.437. Conversely, break above 1.454, to open 1.457.

Comments: The pair remains under pressure. Further weakness favored.

USD/JPY

Long position above 107.15. Target 108.75. Conversely, break below 107.15, to open 106.85.

Comments: The pair hits resistance and reverses.

AUD/USD

Short position below 0.7415. Target 0.73. Conversely, break above 0.7415, to open 0.7445.

Comments: The pair is expected to resume descend after correction.

GOLD

Short position below 1283. Target 1260. Conversely, break above 1283, to open 1287.

Comments: The pair remains under pressure. Further weakness favored.

CRUDE OIL

Short position below 45. Target 43. Conversely, break above 45, to open 46.15.

Comments: The pair breaks below support.

DOW JONES

Short position below 17720. Target 17440. Conversely, break above 17720, to open 17780.

Comments: The pair is expected to resume descend after correction.

Crude Oil Today Technical Report 09/05/2016

Mon, May 09 2016, 05:48 GMT SzrnFX

WTI gapped higher on Monday to trade above the 45.00 (S1) level. Nevertheless, the advance was halted by the 46.00 (R1) resistance line. The price structure on the 4-hour chart still suggests a short-term uptrend and as a result, I would expect a break above 46.00 (R1) to initially aim for the 46.80 (R2) hurdle, marked by the peak of the 29th of April. Our short-term oscillators detect upside momentum and support the case that the price is possible to trade higher in the near future. The RSI crossed above its 50 line, while the MACD, already above its trigger line, has just turned positive. Moreover, both the indicators lie above their respective upside support lines. As for the bigger picture, the price structure on the daily chart remains higher peaks and higher troughs above the uptrend line taken from the low of the 11th of February. This keeps the medium-term picture positive. Nevertheless, I still see negative divergence between the daily oscillators and the price action, revealing that the longer-term uptrend may have started losing some momentum.

OIL 09

%d bloggers like this: