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Mon, May 09 2016, 05:48 GMT SzrnFX
WTI gapped higher on Monday to trade above the 45.00 (S1) level. Nevertheless, the advance was halted by the 46.00 (R1) resistance line. The price structure on the 4-hour chart still suggests a short-term uptrend and as a result, I would expect a break above 46.00 (R1) to initially aim for the 46.80 (R2) hurdle, marked by the peak of the 29th of April. Our short-term oscillators detect upside momentum and support the case that the price is possible to trade higher in the near future. The RSI crossed above its 50 line, while the MACD, already above its trigger line, has just turned positive. Moreover, both the indicators lie above their respective upside support lines. As for the bigger picture, the price structure on the daily chart remains higher peaks and higher troughs above the uptrend line taken from the low of the 11th of February. This keeps the medium-term picture positive. Nevertheless, I still see negative divergence between the daily oscillators and the price action, revealing that the longer-term uptrend may have started losing some momentum.
Mon, May 09 2016, 08:45 GMT SzrnFX
Gold spiked higher on Friday after the below-than-expected NFP print. Nevertheless, it failed to reach the 1300 (R2) psychological barrier. It retreated and hit support at 1283 (S1). I would switch my stance to flat for now and I prefer to wait for a break above the psychological zone of 1300 (R2) before getting confident on larger advances. For now, our short-term oscillators give evidence that the precious metal may continue its retreat for a while. The RSI turned down and is now headed towards its 50 line, while the MACD, although positive, looks ready to fall back below its trigger line. A dip below 1283 (S1) could confirm the case and perhaps open the way for another test near the 1270 (S2) zone. Switching to the daily chart, I still believe that the longer-term trend is positive. However, I would like to see a clear close above 1300 (R2) before assuming its resumption. For now, I would treat any possible further declines in the near-term as a corrective phase.
Mon, May 09 2016, 08:41 GMT SzrnFX
USD/JPY traded higher on Friday and today during the Asian day, it managed to emerge above the (resistance now turned into support) line of 107.40 (S1). Now the rate looks to be headed towards the 107.80 (R1) barrier, where a decisive break is possible to see scope for extensions towards the next resistance zone of 108.70 (R2). Our short-term oscillators detect upside momentum and corroborate my view. The RSI moved above its 50 line, while the MACD, although negative, stands above its trigger line and looks ready to turn positive soon. Switching to the daily chart, I still see a longer-term downtrend. As a result, I would treat the recovery from 105.50 (S3), or any extensions of it, as a corrective phase for now.
EUR/USD traded higher on Friday after the US employment report showed that nonfarm payrolls rose 160k in April, missing market expectations of 203k. The pair broke above the 1.1440 (R1) barrier, but failed to reach the 1.1500 (R2) line and within the following minutes, it retreated to break back below 1.1440 (R1) and to hit support at 1.1380 (S1). Bearing in mind that the rate is trading below the upside support line taken from the low of the 25th of April and below the short-term downtrend line drawn from the peak of the 3rd of May, I would consider the short-term bias to be cautiously negative. A clear dip below 1.1380 (S1) could confirm the case and could initially target our next support at 1.1335 (S2). Nevertheless, taking a look at our short-term oscillators, I see signs that a corrective bounce could be in the works before the next negative leg. The RSI turned up again and could aim for another test near its 50 line, while the MACD, although negative, shows signs of bottoming. Switching to the daily chart, I see that the pair started sliding after it hit resistance at 1.1620, near the prior upside support line taken from the low of the 13th of March. What is more, the pair is trading back below the 1.1500 hurdle, something that makes me stand pat as far as the broader trend of this pair is concerned.
Gold traded lower yesterday, but hit support at 1270 (S1) and then rebounded. The metal is now trading near the 1278 (R1) resistance zone, where the bears could take advantage of a solid US employment report today and push the price lower, perhaps for another test near 1270 (S1). A break below 1270 (S1) is possible to aim for the next support zone of 1260 (S2). Looking at our short-term oscillators, I see that the RSI oscillates around its 50 line, while the MACD stands slightly above its zero line and looks ready to turn sideways. These indicators detect neutral momentum but they could turn bearish on a strong NFP print. Switching to the daily chart, I see that the close above 1278 (R1) on the 29tth of April has confirmed a higher high on the daily chart and signaled the resumption of the prevailing long-term uptrend. Therefore, I would treat the recent slide or any extensions of it as a corrective move for now.
USD/JPY traded in a sideways mode on Thursday, staying below the 107.40 (R1) resistance line. Although there were several attempts to break that level and move higher, none of them found the necessary strength and the rate stayed below that level. A decisive break of that zone is needed to aim perhaps for our next resistance at 107.80 (R2). Another move above that zone could open the way for the 108.70 (R3) hurdle. Our short-term oscillators support that the pair is possible to continue trading higher in the near term. The RSI edged higher and is now testing its 50 line, while the MACD, although negative, stands above its trigger line and looks to be headed towards zero. Switching to the daily chart, I still see a longer-term downtrend. As a result, I would treat the recovery from 105.50 (S2), or any extensions of it, as a corrective phase for now.
EUR/USD tumbled on Thursday falling below 1.1440 (R1) and hitting support at 1.1390 (S1). The short-term outlook remains cautiously positive in my view, but I prefer to wait for a break back above 1.1500 (R2) before I get confident on larger advances. However, today’s directional movement will depend on the outcome of the US employment data for April. The NFP is expected to show a 202k jobs growth, while both the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings are expected to have remained unchanged. This would be a solid report overall and could support the dollar. A break below the support of 1.1390 (S1) and the upside support line taken from the low of the 24th of April, could extend the recent retreat and perhaps initially aim for the 1.1335 (S2) support hurdle. Switching to the daily chart, I see that the pair started sliding after it hit resistance at 1.1620, near the prior upside support line taken from the low of the 13th of March. What is more, the pair is trading back below the 1.1500 (R2) hurdle, something that makes me stand pat as far as the broader trend of this pair is concerned.