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EUR/USD Today Technical 29/04/2016

EUR/USD edged higher on Thursday by exploiting the broader USD weakness, for another attempt to break above the 1.1390 (R1) resistance zone. There were few attempts to break that level and rally but none of them found the necessary strength to push EUR/USD above that territory. I would expect a break of that hurdle to carry larger bullish implications and perhaps challenge our next resistance of 1.1435 (R2) and bring us closer to the key psychological area of 1.1500 (R3). Our short-term momentum indicators support this notion. The RSI lies just below its 70 line pointing up, while the MACD, emerged above its zero line and is pointing up as well. As for the broader trend, EUR/USD is still trading within a wide range between the 1.0800 key obstacle and the psychological area of 1.1500 (R3). As a result, I would consider the longer-term path to be sideways. I would need a break of 1.1500 (R3) to trust further advances.


EUR/USD range bond ahead of ECB meeting

EUR/USD spot has returned to the 1.1300/1.1290 area and is wobbling between gains and losses after yesterday’s significant reversal from the boundaries of 1.1400 the figure.

A better tone in crude oil prices has sparked another bout of risk-on trade, while the greenback remains bid for the time being, all weighing on the pair ahead of the ECB meeting due later.

GBP/USD gain after Yellen’s speech

The GBPUSD spot is sitting a few pips above 1.4368 (38.2% of 1.5230-1.3835). The bullish momentum triggered dovish Yellen ran out of steam as latest poll in the UK showed 49% would vote to remain in the EU at the referendum, 5% less than in a similar poll in February.

Focus Brexit …
The poll clearly shows public opinion is shifting in favor of Brexit. Nevertheless, the spot remains largely unchanged on the day on broad based USD weakness.

EUR/USD Technical Report 16/03/2016

EUR/USD traded somewhat higher yesterday after it hit support at 1.1070 (S1). Nevertheless, the advance was stopped near 1.1120 (R1) and then the pair retreated again. I still believe that another negative leg could be on the cards, perhaps for another test near 1.1070 (S1). A dip below that line could aim for the 1.1030 (S2) barrier. Today, the FOMC ends its two-day policy meeting. Although no one expects them to alter their policy today, any comments that the US economy remains resilient despite the recent turbulence, and any hints on whether June appears a possible meeting for acting, could be the catalyst for the aforementioned bearish move. Our short-term oscillators support the notion as well. The RSI turned down again and looks ready to fall below its 50 line this time, while the MACD, although positive, stands below its trigger line and points down. Switching to the daily chart, I see that EUR/USD is still trading between the 1.0800 key zone and the psychological area of 1.1500. Therefore, I would keep the view that the broader trend remains sideways.



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