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Fri, May 06 2016, 06:23 GMT SzrnFX
The GBP/USD wiped-out gains and now gradually drifts lower, as the US dollar remains solid against its major peers before the US labour market report, as recent hawkish comments from Fed officials lends support the upside bias in the greenback.
Overnight, the dollar rose against a basket of currencies for a third day on Thursday as traders closed out profitable bets against the greenback before Friday’s U.S. payrolls report which may confirm the view the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates soon.
Moreover, a series of recent sluggish UK fundamentals combined with risk-off tone in the markets further add to the bearish pressure surrounding GBP/USD. While from a wider perspective, uncertainty over EU referendum also keeps the pound broadly undermined.
The FOMC’s next meeting on June 14-15 will come days before a controversial referendum in the U.K. on its status in the European Union. A vote paving the way for a so-called “Brexit,” could have broad implications on global financial and foreign exchange markets. Earlier this week, Lockhart outlined the risk of Britain’s departure from the EU at a closely-watched speech in Amelia Island, Florida.
Amid a data-empty UK docket, next on tap remains the US NFP data, which will have major impact on the US dollar and will also shape up Fed next decision on the interest rates.
The GBP/USD is seen in a consolidation phase, after having witnessed sharp gains the day earlier amid broad based US dollar weakness and growing anti-Brexit support.
Overnight, the dollar remained broadly lower against the other major currencies on Tuesday, as the release of disappointing U.S. economic reports dampened demand for the greenback and as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy statement on Wednesday.
The GBP/USD pair trades with an air of caution as the traders remain unnerved ahead of the UK prelim GDP report due to be published in the European session. Markets are expecting the GDP growth rate to have slow to 0.4% in Q1 2016, down from 0.6% seen in the last quarter of 2015, on the back of global headwinds and looming Brexit concerns.
FOMC in focus.
The main market moving event for the major is expected to be the FOMC decision, following the conclusion of the two-day policy meeting that started on Tuesday.
The GBP/USD is seen consolidating near 10-week tops, although failed to keep 1.45 handle, as a mild cautious tone prevalent in the markets weighed on the risk currency GBP.
Overnight, the dollar remained broadly lower against the other major currencies on Monday, after the release of weak U.S. housing sector data and as sentiment on the greenback remained fragile ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week.
The GBP/USD pair manages to remain on the bids on the back of stabilizing oil prices and growing anti-Brexit chatter across the GBP markets. In the day ahead, the major will track the broader market sentiment amid a lack of significant fundamental drivers until the American session, when the US durable goods data will be published.
The GBP/USD extension of Friday’s rally in the cable met fresh supply in a calm Asian session, as markets took that as an excuse to unwind their positions heading into the big week, with FOMC and BOJ monetary policy decisions likely to have significant impact on the majors.
The GBP/USD pair remains supported amid latest polls showing anti-Brexit results, while a data-heavy week ahead keeps the prices in check. The major economic releases this week include durable goods and advance GDP from the US, while from the UK docket, we have the prelim GDP report on the cards this week.
The GBP/USD pair modestly flat at 1.4330, having struck fresh session lows at 1.4320. The cable remains under mild pressure in early Europe as the pound fails to benefit from the persistent risk-off market profile, triggered by the overnight rebound in the oil prices. While markets continue to cheer upbeat US existing home sales data, which weighs further on the GBP/USD pair.
The downside remains capped as sterling finds support from expectations of a minor-rebound in the UK retail sales data due for release in the upcoming session.
The cable extends its recovery from below 1.41 handle for the third straight session, with the recent rise in the pound largely attributed to the Brexit poll results shifting in favour of the ‘remain’ camp, especially after the treasury analysis on the EU referendum, revealing that a vote to leave would mean Britain would be worse off by £4,300 a year per household.
Overnight, the dollar remained broadly lower against the other major currencies in quiet trade on Monday, as markets were jittery after major oil producers failed to reach an agreement on an output freeze and as Friday’s downbeat U.S. data continued to weigh.
The greenback remained under pressure after reports showing that U.S. industrial production fell more than expected in March and consumer sentiment deteriorated slightly this month.
Focus turns towards the US housing data for further incentives on the major. Apart from the data, BOE Governor Carney speech will be closely heard for fresh hints on the UK economic as well as interest rates outlook.
The currency pair ran out of steam at a high of 1.4286 in the NY session yesterday after the BRC monitor showed retail sales were flat lined in March. The spot thus trimmed gains and ended below 50-DMA level.
Focus Economic Data.
The focus today is on UK CPI data. Economists expect March CPI to print at 0.4% y/y and 0.3% m/m. Core inflation is also seen rising 1.3% y/y as opposed to February figure of 1.2% y/y.