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Gold holds three-day decline as investors weigh Fed rate outlook

Gold held a three-day losing streak as investors assessed the outlook for US interest rates before monthly payroll data Friday.

Bullion for immediate delivery traded little changed at US$1,279.75 an ounce by 9:06 am in Singapore, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. Prices have retreated in the past three days after gold briefly surpassed US$1,300 earlier this week and reached the highest since Jan 2015.

The metal has climbed 21 per cent this year, helped by speculation that the Federal Reserve will be slow to tighten monetary policy amid global growth risks and after lending rates in the euro area and Japan fell below zero.

Fed officials are highlighting the prospect of a rate increase next month, with the payroll data key for investor assessment of the policy landscape. Holdings in exchange-traded funds rose to the highest since Dec 2013.

Markets are “waiting for clearer signals on whether US activity will bounce back in the second quarter or whether the loss of momentum will extend,” Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd said on Thursday.

“Investor interest remains strong” for gold, it said.

Sources:  BLOOMBERG

GBP/USD consolidation FOMC focus

The GBP/USD  is seen in a consolidation phase, after having witnessed sharp gains the day earlier amid broad based US dollar weakness and growing anti-Brexit support.

Overnight, the dollar remained broadly lower against the other major currencies on Tuesday, as the release of disappointing U.S. economic reports dampened demand for the greenback and as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy statement on Wednesday.

The GBP/USD pair trades with an air of caution as the traders remain unnerved ahead of the UK prelim GDP report due to be published in the European session. Markets are expecting the GDP growth rate to have slow to 0.4% in Q1 2016, down from 0.6% seen in the last quarter of 2015, on the back of global headwinds and looming Brexit concerns.

FOMC in focus.

The main market moving event for the major is expected to be the FOMC decision, following the conclusion of the two-day policy meeting that started on Tuesday.

AUD/USD gains after China Q1 GDP

The AUD/USD  is seen making several attempts to retest 2016 highs reached yesterday at 0.7737, although the bulls remain unimpressed by favourable Chinese GDP and industrial figures and hence, struggle to make further advances.

China said first quarter GDP rose 6.7% year-on-year, matching expectations, while industrial production for March rose 6.9%, better than the 5.9% gain seen year-on-year and retail sales increased 10.5%, beating the 10.4% expected year-on-year.

Overnight, the dollar moved back up toward two-and-a-half week highs against the other major currencies on Thursday, as investors shrugged off mixed U.S. economic reports.

Amid a lack of fresh incentives in the upcoming session, attention now shifts towards the US consumer sentiment, industrial production and Empire State manufacturing index due later in the NY session for fresh insights on the US economic recovery.

GBP/USD gain after UK’s data

The GBP/USD pair has seen its upside renewed after UK’s GDP figures have surprised markets to the upside today, showing that the economy has expanded at an annual pace of 2.1% (vs. 1.9% exp.) and 0.6% inter-quarter (vs. 0.5% exp.) during October-December 2015.

Further data saw UK’s Current Account deficit at £32.7 billion during the same period, more than the initially forecasted at £21.1 billion and at record highs.

GBP/USD Spot has thus managed to regain the 1.4400 neighborhood in the wake of the releases, bouncing off daily lows near 1.4330.

Gold Today Technical Report 11/03/2016

Gold traded higher yesterday after it hit support at the upside support line taken from the low of the 10th of February, something that keeps the short-term outlook cautiously positive. However, the advance was stopped slightly below the 1285 (R2) resistance line and then the metal retreated somewhat. I believe that a break above 1285 (R2) is needed to signal the continuation of the near-term upside path. If the bulls are strong enough to overcome that hurdle, I would expect them to set the stage for extensions towards the psychological zone of 1300 (R3). For now, taking a look at our short-term oscillators, I see signs that another pullback may be in the works before buyers seize control again. The RSI turned down after finding resistance below its 70 line, while the MACD, although above both its zero and trigger lines, shows signs that it could start topping. On the daily chart, I still see an uptrend, but I also see negative divergence between our daily oscillators and the price action. This increases the possibilities for another corrective move.

Gold 11